Brace yourself for a bold prediction: the Ghana cedi is set to take a hit against the US dollar in 2026, according to Fitch Solutions, a UK-based firm. But here's the twist: they believe it won't be as bad as it could've been.
Fitch Solutions predicts an 8% weakening of the cedi against the dollar, which is actually below its long-term average depreciation of 10.2%. So, it's not all doom and gloom.
The firm attributes this to two key factors: global gold prices and Ghana's international reserves. With gold prices soaring and healthy reserves, the cedi is expected to withstand undue pressure on its exchange rate.
But here's where it gets controversial: Fitch Solutions believes that despite some inflationary pressures in the second half of 2026, it will remain modest, not putting too much strain on household finances. And this is the part most people miss: the government's commitment to raising public-sector wages by 9% will further boost purchasing power, according to the firm.
"We forecast private consumption growth to stay strong at 6.5% in 2026, contributing significantly to real GDP growth," they say.
Over the past two weeks, the cedi has faced some depreciation pressures against major trading currencies, primarily due to seasonal demand and central bank interventions.
In the interbank market, the US dollar-cedi pair closed at a midrate of GH¢11.41, up from GH¢1.12. Against the pound and euro, the cedi depreciated by 4.62% and 3.87%, respectively, closing at GH¢15.26 and GH¢13.32.
In the retail market, the cedi dipped slightly to GH¢12.05, losing 0.94% and 1.08% against the pound and euro, closing at GH¢15.90 and GH¢13.95.
So, what do you think? Is Fitch Solutions' prediction too optimistic, or do you believe their analysis is spot-on? Share your thoughts in the comments and let's discuss!
